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Key points: --In 2011, Xinjiang produced 120 million tonnes of coal. In our base case estimate, Xinjiang will produce ~240 million tonnes per year of coal in 2015 and slightly over 750 million tonnes per year in 2020. --This would make Xinjiang one of the world’s 5 largest coal producers by volume. --By 2020, Xinjiang could export 200 million tonnes per year of coal to other parts of China by rail, 200 million tonnes per year as electricity, and potentially 100+ million tonnes per year as chemicals and liquid fuel. --Low-cost thermal coal and coal-by-wire electricity from Xinjiang could pose a significant competitive threat to shale gas development in Central and Southwestern China, which are target markets for coal and electricity produced in Xinjiang. --Xinjiang coal could be delivered in…